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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet the current race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still